Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Premier League match | Sporting News

Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Premier League match | Sporting News

Arsenal continue their difficult season run-in as they host Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium, with the hunt for the Premier League title remaining hot down the stretch.

The Gunners have by far the toughest finishing fixture list of the three title contenders, with the north London derby looming on the weekend plus a visit to Old Trafford still to come.

They cannot afford a single slip, as the Gunners do not control their own destiny in the title race and therefore must be near-perfect the rest of the way to ensure they capitalise on any slips by their rivals. Arsenal hold the lead at the top of the standings, level on points with Liverpool while ahead on goal differential, but Man City loom one point back and hold a game in hand, thus maintaining the advantage over the other two.

Chelsea have little else to play for the rest of the season, but would be thrilled to play spoiler for their London rivals. The Blues sit ninth in the table, and while their hunt for European places remains alive in theory, in practice they have gained little ground over the last month and it feels inevitable that they will find themselves outside unless they reverse their fortune.

They could, however, be missing 20-goal talisman Cole Palmer who is ill and, according to Mauricio Pochettino, a doubt to take part in this match.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Arsenal vs Chelsea and bet Premier League matches

Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Arsenal (-225)
  • Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Chelsea

The Gunners know the thin margins of the Premier League title race, and Mikel Arteta has played into the idea that they will find goals eventually, they just have to keep the opponent out on the other end. While these two sides drew at Stamford Bridge, Arsenal are clearly the better side and should come away with a victory at home as Chelsea continue to flounder in front of net and make mistakes at the back.

The odds for this match opened solidly in favour of Arsenal, and that has only strengthened as they pass 2/5 to win, while Chelsea’s moneyline value has swung from 4/1 to over 6/1 in the final few hours before the match.


Arsenal win -250
Draw +400
Chelsea win +650
Both teams
to score
Y: -130
N: -110
Over / Under
3.5 goals
O: +135
U: -190
-1.5 goals
+1.5 goals

Arsenal vs Chelsea match facts

  • Date: Tuesday, April 23, 2024
  • Kickoff time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
  • Referee: Simon Hooper, VAR: Peter Bankes
  • Last meeting: Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal (Oct. 21, 2023 | Premier League)

Arsenal vs Chelsea best bet

  • Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
  • Odds: +135 (BetMGM)

As the season comes to a close and the players look more and more exhausted, Mikel Arteta has tried to play into his side’s smothering defence and slow games down, limiting chances on both sides. Arsenal have seen two or fewer goals scored in three straight games and six of their last eight, and their other recent matches that went over the total still showed signs of this style.

In the first leg against Bayern Munich, Arsenal played well enough to keep a clean sheet, save for two uncharacteristic defensive errors that the German giants capitalised on, and against Brighton the Gunners didn’t find a third until four minutes from full-time. They even finished with a 2-0 victory over chaotic Luton Town, the first time the Hatters had been blanked since mid-November.

Chelsea struggle mightily to finish chances, smothered by Man City in the recent 1-0 defeat. Even the 2-2 draw from the reverse fixture between these two sides featured just 2.34 xG — Declan Rice scored from miles away and Mykhailo Mudryk chipped in a worldie almost surely by accident, while Leandro Trossard’s late equaliser had fluky elements.

Arsenal vs Chelsea prop bet

  • Pick: Chelsea 4+ shots on target
  • Odds: -110 (FanDuel)

The Blues do not have a problem creating chances, but they do struggle mightily to finish them. While Chelsea do not rack up a high total shot count, they actually do quite well converting their meager volume into efforts on frame. What they don’t do well is putting those efforts in positions where the goalkeeper can’t stop them from going in the net.

If you take the 14 Chelsea players with at least 10 shots in Premier League matches this season and then remove Cole Palmer (82 shots, 40 shots on target, 20 goals) from the equation, the remaining individuals are scoring one goal every 3.2 shots on target, which would see just six clubs below them, including three from the bottom five in the table.

Just three Premier League players have a worse goals-xG differential than Nicolas Jackson this season: Darwin Nunez (struggles with the easy ones but at least puts away a few worldies), Erling Haaland (massive volume plus regression from last season’s record-setting campaign), and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (one of the worst finishers in recent Premier League history).

They’ll put a few on frame, just don’t expect them to find the back of the net, especially if Palmer misses out due to illness.

Arsenal vs Chelsea live stream, TV channel

As the only Premier League match of the day, U.S. broadcast rights-holder NBC Sports has decided to televise this match on USA Network, which can be streamed on Fubo, who are offering a free trial for new users. There is also a Spanish-language broadcast available on Universo, which can also be streamed on Fubo.

In Canada, Fubo is the exclusive broadcast rights-holder for the Premier League this season, with every match from August to May streaming live on the platform. Fubo also hold the exclusive broadcast rights to Serie A games in Canada, while other leagues like MLS, Bundesliga, and La Liga can be found throughout the season as well.

This midweek Premier League match will be broadcast domestically in the UK on TNT Sports 1, with streaming available on discovery+.

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