By When it comes to golf betting, it’s not that you lost but how it unfolded that sticks with you.
Xander Schauffele, my 20/1 pick last week at The Players Championship, put together an incredible round on Saturday to take the lead into the final round, then held it on Sunday until the 14th hole.
His drive missed the fairway by a yard, and he couldn’t control his approach shot from the rough. He bogeyed the hole and the next one as well.
At that point, he was trailing Scottie Scheffler by two strokes with three holes to play.
He managed to birdie the par-5 16th hole to pull within one and then threw an absolute dart on TPC Sawgrass’ difficult 17th.
Very few golfers were willing to challenge the pin on the island green this year, yet Schauffele put his approach shot to 6 feet. Right when I let myself have hope, he missed the putt. He then drove the ball into the trees on the 18th and ended up losing by one stroke.
The ups and downs of golf betting are unlike anything else in sports. Luckily, we don’t have time to lick our wounds, as the Valspar Championship is set to tee off on Thursday morning.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort measures 7,340 yards. This is an unusual par-71 layout in that it features four par 5s and five par 3s.
It is also a unique Florida course in that it features tree-lined fairways and plenty of elevation changes. The way it looks and plays is more like a course in Carolina than Florida.
The fairways here are narrow (30 yards wide on average) and several holes have doglegs, which is why the average driving distance at this event last year was only 280 yards. You certainly don’t have to be a bomber to contend here.
The greens are small (5,800 square feet), and feature bermudagrass with poa trivialis overseed.
Last year, the field only hit 55% of the greens in regulation, which places an emphasis on around-the-green play. Iron play is also critical, with more than 50% of approach shots at Copperhead coming from over 175 yards.
This course routinely plays as one of the most challenging ones on the PGA Tour. The more difficult the course, the more important tee-to-green play becomes.
While putting is always needed to win tournaments, I don’t mind taking the chance on some bad putters this week (I mean, Paul Casey won this event two times). You’ll find that’s a common theme in my outright selections at the Valspar Championship.
Top 2024 Valspar Championship odds
| Golfer | FanDuel | bet365 | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | +650 | +750 | +800 |
| Sam Burns | +1200 | +1200 | +1100 |
| Justin Thomas | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Jordan Spieth | +1600 | +1800 | +1400 |
| Brian Harman | +2000 | +2200 | +2000 |
| Cameron Young | +2200 | +2800 | +2200 |
| Sungjae Im | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 |
| Tony Finau | +2500 | +2800 | +2200 |
| Min Woo Lee | +3000 | +3500 | +3000 |
| Nick Taylor | +3500 | +3500 | +3500 |
| Keegan Bradley | +3500 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Sepp Straka | +3500 | +4000 | +4500 |
2024 Valspar Championship outright bets
Justin Thomas (14/1, bet365)
An argument could be made for Sam Burns at the top of the board this week, but I’m going with Thomas after much internal debate.
Thomas missed the cut at The Players last week, but he gained 4.7 strokes on approach. He couldn’t make a putt (and even three-putted from 5 feet at one point on Friday).
I can forgive him for one bad putting performance, especially since he gained with the flatstick in four of his previous six events.
He’s elite on approach and elite around the green. He’s been trending toward a win for a while now and has finished in the top 13 at this event in each of the last three years.
Doug Ghim (+4500, FanDuel)
I have always loved building sports models and projections. It might have something to do with my background in accounting.
I ran my golf model this week and couldn’t believe that Ghim had the sixth-best chance of winning. I double-checked all of the inputs; sure enough, the model loves Ghim. At +4500 (and lowering every day), I have to trust the model with this one.
Ghim has rattled off five straight top-20 finishes and has gained more than 20 strokes ball-striking during that stretch. He’s accurate off the tee, he’s elite on approach, and his short game has improved this year.
If he can keep up the excellent ball-striking and have a good week on the greens, I could easily see him in contention on Sunday afternoon.
Lucas Glover (+6600, BetMGM)
Do I think Glover can putt well enough to win this week? Not really, but I also didn’t think he could putt well enough to win back-to-back events in the fall.
At nearly 70/1, I’m willing to look his way in the outright market.
He’s a good total driver of the ball and is a top-10 iron player in this field. Additionally, he has gained strokes around the green in six of his last seven starts. That’s an added bonus, as he’s usually just known for his ball-striking.
He’s an excellent fit for Copperhead and has plenty of experience at Innisbrook.
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It’s certainly a big if, but if he can have a spike week putting, there’s no reason he couldn’t win his third event in the last eight months.
If one of our three golfers is in the mix again on Sunday, let’s hope we get him across the finish line this time.
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