PSG vs Real Sociedad prediction, odds, expert betting tips and best bets for Champions League first leg | Sporting News

PSG vs Real Sociedad prediction, odds, expert betting tips and best bets for Champions League first leg | Sporting News

As rumors swirl regarding Kylian Mbappe’s club future, the French superstar will embark on what could be potentially his final shot at winning the Champions League with PSG, set for the first leg of their Round of 16 matchup against Real Sociedad.

Recent reports indicate that Mbappe is nearing a move to Real Madrid this summer which has seemingly been in the works for years. The 25-year-old has come up repeatedly short in bringing PSG the Champions League title the French club so craves, and should that transfer come to pass, it would mean this year’s European journey would be his last with the side with which he rose to global stardom.

In the wake of PSG’s purging of all other superstars on the roster, with players such as Lionel Messi, Neymar, and Marco Verratti exiting the French capital, they are hoping that Mbappe’s full ownership of the spotlight will help push them towards the European goal. They sit miles ahead of the Ligue 1 rabble at the top of the French table, but they yearn for far more than just yearly domestic dominance.

They host La Real who surprised the Champions League field by beating Inter, Benfica, and Red Bull Salzburg to the top spot in Group D, and therefore are the seeded side for this matchup. It’s a cruel draw for the Spanish side, an unjust reward for their impressive group results, but they will fancy their chances despite a recent regression on the domestic front in recent weeks.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for PSG vs Real Sociedad and bet Champions League matches

PSG vs Real Sociedad prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Draw (+275)
  • Score prediction: PSG 0-0 Real Sociedad

While this PSG side doesn’t resemble the likes of recent years in which they repeatedly flopped on the European stage, it still feels as though proof is required that they are truly changed. The French giants haven’t played a truly meaningful match since their 1-1 draw with Borussia Dortmund in mid-December, a match which just barely kept PSG in a UCL qualifying place.

Real Sociedad, meanwhile, are proving themselves defensive giants this year. They have conceded the third-fewest expected goals of any Spanish top-flight side this season, and the fourth-fewest goals, and those rankings rise further if you zoom in on just the last two months of action.

Kylian Mbappe may miss this match due to an ankle injury, but even in the likely event he plays, he and his PSG teammates will face a La Real side with very little intent to score, instead prioritizing their defensive solidity. There could be a lot of frustration in store for PSG as they look to break down an opponent who will have every desire to keep them out.

PSG win -140
Draw +275
Real Sociedad win +450
Both teams
to score Y/N
-120 / -105
Over / Under
2.5 goals
-115 / -115
-0.5 goals
Real Sociedad
+0.5 goals

PSG vs Real Sociedad match facts

  • Date: Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2024
  • Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Parc des Princes (Paris, France)
  • Referee: Marco Guida (ITA), VAR: Paolo Valeri (ITA)
  • Last meeting: None (first meeting)

PSG vs Real Sociedad: best bet

  • Pick: Both teams to score — NO
  • Odds: -105 (DraftKings)

With a defensive battle potentially on the horizon, chances will be at a premium for both sides. It’s entirely conceivable that PSG is frustrated to the point of a clean sheet, but obviously, Kylian Mbappe will have a lot to say about that.

PSG, however, are defensively stout themselves, and should they snatch a goal or two, they’ll be motivated to shut it down and keep things shored up at the back to maintain that advantage into the second leg. Real Sociedad aren’t exactly built to come from behind, with just one win and three draws in nine La Liga matches this season in which they’ve fallen behind.

On the whole, La Real has quieted a bit up front in the last few months, partly thanks to the absence of Takefusa Kubo who only recently returned from his Asian Cup responsibilities with Japan. One side — if not both — should finish the 90 minutes without anything to show for their efforts.

PSG vs Real Sociedad prop bet

  • Pick: Race to 6 corners — PSG
  • Odds: +110 (FanDuel)

On Real Sociedad’s end of the pitch, both teams will see PSG’s corner count as a positive tactic, which could be an interesting tactical battle throughout these 90 minutes.

PSG is not a side that collects corners en masse, preferring to instead create from open play rather than feed attacking flow vertically. They rank way down in fifth amongst Ligue 1 sides for most corners, a shockingly low ranking for a team that dominates attacking possession in most matches, and their 20.65% success rate is dead last in the league. Real Sociedad will know they want to hem PSG in out wide and will be happy to concede set-pieces, rather than let the French side cook in the attacking third.

On the opposite end, despite their apparent aversion to corners most of the season, PSG may be happy to take what Real Sociedad gives them in that regard. La Real has conceded three goals from corners this year, but that has come on 6.44 xG, indicating they can be beaten in the air — sure enough, their aerial success rate of 49.9% is poor given they have the second-most aerial challenges in La Liga.

PSG vs Real Sociedad live stream, TV channel

In the United States, exclusive English-language broadcast rights of the UEFA Champions League this season are owned by CBS, who stream every match on Paramount+.

CBS Sports has also earmarked this match for a major nationwide television broadcast on its main network channel, which is available to stream on Fubo.

In Canada, the Champions League broadcast rights are held by DAZN, which streams every match of the competition. UK rights to this match are held by TNT Sports (formerly BT Sport) who will air this match on TNT Sports 1, with streaming on discovery+.

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