Historian who accurately predicts elections supports Joe Biden; calls on Democrats not to replace him

Historian who accurately predicts elections supports Joe Biden; calls on Democrats not to replace him

The first US Presidential Debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden led to many Democrats calling for Biden’s replacement. Many of the national surveys indicate that the supporters of the party fear that Biden does not have the ability to continue in office for the second term. They also fear that Trump may win the upcoming election in November. However, a presidential historian named Allan Lichtman has said that the Democrats should not replace Biden. He has predicted the last nine of the 10 presidential elections correctly. He also blamed the media for highlighting the cognitive decline in Biden.

Allan Lichtman’s comments on Biden:

Allan Lichtman who is an American University History Professor said that Biden’s performance in the past 4 years has been exemplary and his performance in a 90-minute debate cannot be used to judge his overall performance. He pointed out that Hilary Clinton was winning on many surveys after the presidential debate in 2016 but still lost the election to Trump.

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Predictions:

The professor has been rightly predicting the presidential election since 1984. He has predicted nine out of 10 elections correctly. His only wrong prediction was of the 2000 Presidential election when he predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote. George W Bush won the electoral college vote and won the election.

He is yet to make his prediction on the upcoming presidential poll.

Methodology:

The professor has built an algorithm in the 1980’s with Mathematician Vladimir Keillis- Borok based on 13 factors. These factors are incumbency, party mandate, contest, third-party, long -term economy, short-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma and foreign/military success.Also Read: Donald Trump is winning against Joe Biden in US Presidential Election 2024? Here’s what latest survey claims He added that Biden ticks off the incumbency and contest key. Removing Biden at this stage can be disastrous for the Democrats.

FAQs:

Is Biden being replaced on the ballot box?
It is unlikely that Biden will be replaced considering the complex rules. He has won 3900/4000 votes in the various primaries and replacing him at this stage can be an issue for the party.

When is the second US Presidential debate?
The second debate will be held on September 10, 2024. It has been reported that after the setback, Biden and his team are preparing for the second debate.

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