Genesis Invitational Tips 2024 – Golf Betting System

Genesis Invitational Tips 2024 – Golf Betting System

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Genesis Invitational winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this medium length, classical, tree-lined, Par 71:

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

  • 2023, Jon Rahm (-17). SG Off the Tee: 28th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 39th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 12th.
  • 2022, Joaquin Niemann (-19). SG Off the Tee: 17th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 26th.
  • 2021, Max Homa (-12). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 21st, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 7th.
  • 2020, Adam Scott (-11). SG Off the Tee: 17th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 17th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 27th.
  • 2019, J.B. Holmes (-14). SG Off the Tee: 37th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 33rd, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 1st.
  • 2018, Bubba Watson (-12). SG Off the Tee: 17th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 6th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 21st.
  • 2017, Dustin Johnson (-17). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 20th, SG Around the Green: 44th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 3rd.
  • 2016, Bubba Watson (-15). SG Off the Tee: 16th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 36th, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 11th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

  • SG Off the Tee: 17th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 23rd, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 14th.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the Genesis Invitational winners since 2010 us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2023, Jon Rahm (-17). 315 yards (6th), 41.1% fairways (63rd), 70.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 36’5″ proximity to hole (9th), 61.9% scrambling (50th), 1.63 putts per GIR (7th).
  • 2022, Joaquin Niemann (-19). 297 yards (64th), 44.6% fairways (58th), 65.3% greens in regulation (14th), 33’8″ proximity to hole (5th), 76.0 % scrambling (10th), 1.55 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2021, Max Homa (-12). 290 yards (51st), 57.1% fairways (3rd), 62.5% greens in regulation (5th), 42’4″ proximity to hole (33rd), 66.7 % scrambling (24th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2020, Adam Scott (-11). 305 yards (15th), 41.1% fairways (63rd), 72.2% greens in regulation (1st), 38’5″ proximity to hole (22nd), 60.0 % scrambling (46th), 1.69 putts per GIR (15th).
  • 2019, J.B. Holmes (-14). 281 yards (41st), 51.8% fairways (59th), 72.2% greens in regulation (2nd), 38’5″ proximity to hole (31st), 70.0 % scrambling (17th), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th).
  • 2018, Bubba Watson (-12). 304 yards (21st), 57.1% fairways (27th), 63.9% greens in regulation (7th), 36’4″ proximity to hole (10th), 69.2 % scrambling (20th), 1.65 putts per GIR (13th).
  • 2017, Dustin Johnson (-17). 315 yards (1st), 51.8% fairways (45th), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 34’11” proximity to hole (10th), 81.3 % scrambling (5th), 1.70 putts per GIR (16th).
  • 2016, Bubba Watson (-15). 295 yards (17th), 50.0% fairways (50th), 70.8% greens in regulation (7th), 32’6″ proximity to hole (6th), 76.4 % scrambling (4th), 1.73 putts per GIR (21st).
  • 2015, James Hahn (-6). 287 yards (50th), 51.8% fairways (37th), 55.6% greens in regulation (28th), 36’11” proximity to hole (15th), 68.8 % scrambling (13th), 1.70 putts per GIR (14th).
  • 2014, Bubba Watson (-15). 319 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (8th), 70.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 31’3″ proximity to hole (5th), 71.4 % scrambling (16th), 1.65 putts per GIR (7th).
  • 2013, John Merrick (-11). 299 yards (20th), 53.6% fairways (29th), 63.9% greens in regulation (24th), 33’9″ proximity to hole (11th), 65.4% scrambling (19th), 1.67 putts per GIR (8th).
  • 2012, Bill Haas (-7). 280 yards (60th), 55.4% fairways (32nd), 50.0% greens in regulation (59th), 44’3″ proximity to hole (64th), 72.2% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (12th).
  • 2011, Aaron Baddeley (-12). 277 yards (42nd), 50.0% fairways (57th), 72.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 35’0″ proximity to hole (21st), 80.0% scrambling (1st), 1.83 putts per GIR (54th).
  • 2010, Steve Stricker (-16). 270 yards (37th), 69.6% fairways (29th), 66.7% greens in regulation (11th), 29’2″ proximity to hole (2nd), 75.0% scrambling (8th), 1.63 putts per GIR (3rd).

Tournament Skill Averages:

Driving Distance: 30th, Driving Accuracy: 40th, Greens in Regulation: 12th, Proximity to Hole: 17th, Scrambling: 17th, Putting Average 13th.

genesis invitational tips

So let’s take a view from players as to how Riviera Country Club set-up plus what skill sets they favour:

Jon Rahm (2023): “My record is decent in California, right? I think because I grew up on poa annua greens, I feel comfortable and it’s shown. Again, it’s a golf course where you need to strike the golf ball well, you need to move it both ways and tee to green is obviously usually my forte and it plays to my strengths and that’s why I think I’ve had success here.

It’s a difficult golf course out there. Yesterday morning it was still a little bit softer so you could be a bit more aggressive. Those greens were getting a little crunchy and a little firmer, so the margins are already small on this golf course and you’re playing with even smaller margins with running fairways and firm greens, not to add the poa annua factor in the afternoon. So to just shoot even par I’m really happy about be cause it did not look good for a while and luckily I got it together for the last seven holes.”

Joaquin Niemann (2022): “ I’ve been here a couple times. Obviously I played the U.S. Amateur a couple years ago. I remember last year I played great golf the first two days, then the weekend I didn’t play good. I think it’s one of those courses that you do everything right; you have to hit it good off the tee, you have to hit your irons pretty good and you’ve got to putt unbelievable, especially on these type of greens because they’re so fast.”

“On 12 I knew I had like – I think I had like 200 front and I had a little window there that I had to cut it like 20, 30 yards with a 4-iron. Obviously he didn’t like the idea of that, but I felt pretty confident of that shot and I felt that I was able to do it. I hit actually a really good shot, just a little bit lower than I thought and it just didn’t carry that, but it was close to being pretty good.”

Max Homa (2021): “I know the golf course pretty well. I’ve been fortunate to play a few more times since college and it’s the grass I grew up on. Kikuyu, poa annua, it’s very, very comfortable for me.”

I was patient. I did a lot of the things the same as yesterday. My touch wasn’t quite as good around the greens, left myself too many six- to eight-footers, but stayed patient, waited for some good numbers, took advantage when I had them at the end. Yeah, it felt very similar to yesterday, just kind of Riviera doing what it does. But the fairways are really firm, so it’s running. If you can hit the ball in the fairway, you’re going to have a pretty short club in. If you miss it in the rough, you’re going to have quite a bit longer in, it just stops it right away. It was similar to yesterday. Tough test. Some pins a little easier, but some pins much harder.”

“I didn’t make a bogey over the final 26 holes. I was proud of that. Fred Couples oddly enough has been texting me especially throughout this week and he told me Thursday or Friday that solid golf wins at Riviera and just keep playing solid, and I’ve been thinking about that ever since and especially on a day like today. Really difficult this morning when we came back out, made two great putts to start, kind of settled my nerves and I just was trying to be as solid as I could. My coach and caddie, Joe, we’ve had a mantra this week, position over perfection, so we were just trying to leave it in the best spot all week and I thought we did a really good job of that this week.”

Adam Scott (2020): Yeah, I really just like a lot of the holes out here. You know, I stand on the tee very comfortable here, and shots into the green. Somehow I manage to putt generally well here when it’s one of the courses that guys struggle most on tour with. Something about it reminds me a lot of some golf in Australia, too, in areas. Just feel very comfortable every time I’m here.”

“I guess I scrambled well today. I think I got up and down five times out of five, so probably that. You know, it’s very tough here in the afternoons putting. Yesterday when I missed a green and I chipped them up, even good chips, it was hard to be sure you’re going to make them from inside that 10 feet, five feet, and missed a few. This morning when you could chip them up, you’re just a little more confident with the smoother greens. So my chipping and my putting was very solid out there this morning.”

“But I think with the putting, it’s a bit of both. I seem to not struggle too much on the greens here and I guess at least by the stats everyone else does compared to normal. I don’t know what it is because they putt on poa at other places, but maybe it’s just the undulation and it’s more difficult here. But I’ve kind of always been fairly comfortable on these greens.”

J.B. Holmes (2019): “I knew that it was going to get really windy in the afternoon and that’s what the weather had said. Always thought that would have been a better chance for me; usually when the conditions are crappy I do better. You never know out here. This is a tough golf course and you throw that kind of wind in there. But yeah, at one point it looked like,  Brandon looked at me and said, Do you think Justin is going to get to 20 under, and I was like, You mean this round? He was playing unbelievable there that third round. You can’t just get up there and whack it when it’s blowing that hard. You’ve got to read wind and there’s a lot of slope on these greens. It’s not an easy golf course and you throw in winds like that. On 13 or 14, the par 3, I hit a 5-iron and it stays pretty good. He hits a 5-iron really good and a gust of wind comes up and he comes up like 15 yards short, and I think he hit it better than I hit mine. It’s very tough. Then when you get putting like that, it’s just not going to be fast anywhere.”

Bubba Watson (2018): “You know, there was a great champion that went bogey free on the weekend one time. But no, it’s a tough one because of the greens, because of this grass. We know late in the day you’re going to get some bounces that you don’t agree with, so it’s very difficult. You’ll hit a chip shot or an iron shot that you think is great, hits a little bounce and goes opposite or whatever, or your putt does that. So it’s very difficult and you’re going to make a mistake. It might not be a mistake by you, it might be the ball bounces the other way. So you’ve got to just keep fighting and hopefully you make more birdies than bogeys. This golf course stood the test of time. Nobody’s talking about changing it unless they mention a major involved with it. They added a tee on No. 2 a long time ago, a few years ago, and we never played it because No. 2 doesn’t need it. So when you think about history and not messing with the golf course, today, this day and age you can’t build a golf course like this. It stood the test of time. It’s the only golf course that has a perfect par 3 with a bunker in the middle of it. You know, it’s just a beautiful layout and it’s fun to play. You’ve got to hit shots from every different angle, you’ve got to move it right to left and left to right, so it’s just fun. Then the greens are the equalizer so it makes me look, I putt as good as the other guys.

Jordan Spieth: “I mean, you can go back in your memory, and I can picture all the holes, I know where the pins are, I know where the breaks are on those greens. But you’ve still got to get on to the practice greens and then dial in the feel, dial in the speed. This poa annua putts differently than it did last week at the courses that we played there in Pebble Beach, and so you’ve got to be careful here. It can get away from you very quickly. And it’s hard to get below the hole. That’s the thing out here. So you start to go to the driving range and I’ll start to try and work on some shots where you kind of float ones in, work on a lot of shots that you can loft up in the air more than maybe you would do last week. So there’s still a lot of adjustments to be made, even if you are familiar with the place, because with the weather here compared to what it could be last week, normally it’s less wind here and it’s more positioning. You’ve got to be in the fairways, even with little rough, to be able to hold these greens. You start working on a lot of different shots.

Rory McIlroy: “It’s a great golf course. We don’t play golf courses like this very often anymore on Tour, and it’s a real treat when you come to a golf course like this where it’s not overly long, you don’t have to really bomb it off the tee, but it’s real strategic. You’ve got to place your ball on the right sides of the fairways. You have to make sure you hit it to the right side of the greens. You really can’t short-side yourself here. You can’t really get it above the pin. It’s a real thinker’s golf course and it’s a real treat to play something like this because we don’t get to play them that often anymore. Especially those, I think I saw a stat the other day, that there was more 3-footers missed here than there was anywhere else last year, I think by a long way actually. Inside sort of five or six feet is going to be really important this week, because you’re not going to hit the amount of greens that you’re used to hitting. You hit 12 greens around here, you’ve done pretty well. So there will be a lot of those holing-out-type distances for pars that will be important. I think that’s one of the big things this week for me, and I’ve been trying to work on that.

Bubba Watson: “Today obviously with the rain it was easier. The golf course is accepting shots. But this golf course, the history of this golf course, this is one of those golf courses that we talk about a lot, because of the history. There’s not much change around here. The golf course has stayed the same, same kind of grass, it’s not heavy rough. It’s basically getting the right bounce. You lands it six inches short, it stays short. You land it just on the green it could bounce over. It’s all about hitting the right trajectories, hitting the right line, and hopefully on certain pins, hitting the fairway so you can produce a little bit of spin. So your answer is: It’s just a traditional old school golf course that’s got a lot of history. I love it because of the history, and as you can see, there’s some trees down compared to where the first time I played here. I think I started playing here nine, ten years ago. And so you can spray it a little bit but still manage the golf course. But at the same time, you can hit fairways and manage the golf course. It’s one of those golf courses where it can bite you at any minute, but at the same time you can score and you can imagine a bunch of shots around the trees and around the greens.”

Incoming Form of Genesis Invitational winners since 2010:

  • Jon Rahm: 3rd TPC Scottsdale/7th Torrey 1st PGA West /1st Kapalua.
  • Joaquin Niemann: 8th Saudi/6th Torrey/MC RSM Classic/MC Houston.
  • Max Homa: 7th Pebble/42nd TPC Scottsdale/18th Torrey/21st PGA West.
  • Adam Scott: 1st Aus PGA/MC Aus Open/11th WGC HSBC/33rd ZOZO.
  • J.B. Holmes: MC Pebble/26th TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey/48th Mayakoba.
  • Bubba Watson: 35th Pebble/40th Torrey/MC PGA West/67th RSM Classic.
  • Dustin Johnson: 3rd Pebble/MC Torrey/2nd Abu/6th Kapalua.
  • Bubba Watson: MC Pebble Beach/14th TPC Scottsdale/10th Kapalua/1st World Challenge.
  • James Hahn: 29th Pebble/41st Torrey/59th TPC Scottsdale/20th PGA West.
  • Bubba Watson: 2nd TPC Scottsdale/23rd Torrey/30th Thailand/3rd World Challenge.
  • John Merrick: 16th Pebble/57th TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey/MC PGA West.
  • Bill Haas: 19th TPC Scottsdale/4th Torrey/64th PGA West/20th Kapalua.
  • Aaron Baddeley: 6th Pebble/37th TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey/34th Waialae.
  • Steve Stricker: 3rd Waialae/10th Kapalua/10th World Challenge/6th East Lake.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010.

  • 2023 – Homa/Mitchell – AM/PM -7/64 – 35/1 & 80/1.
  • 2022 – Niemann – PM -8/63 – 66/1.
  • 2021 – Burns – PM -7/64 – 85/1.
  • 2020 – Kuchar – AM -7/64 – 60/1.
  • 2019 – Holmes – PM -8/63 – 100/1.
  • 2018 – Cantlay/Finau – Both PM -5/66 – Both 55/1.
  • 2017 – Saunders – AM -7/64 – 300/1.
  • 2016 – Villegas PM -8/63.
  • 2015 – Fathauer/Goosen/Hahn/Singh/Summerhays/Watney – 5AM/1PM -5/66.
  • 2014 – D Johnson – AM -5/66.
  • 2013 – Kuchar – AM -7/64.
  • 2012 – Mickelson – PM -5/66.
  • 2011 – 9 players -4/67.
  • 2010 – D Johnson – AM -7/64.

There’s undoubtedly a form link between Riviera and a couple of other classical golf courses. The course here features Kikuyugrass fairways and rough, agronomy which is only shared with Torrey Pines, so it’s hardly a surprise to see that recent winners like Baddeley, Haas, Johnson, Merrick, Watson, Scott, Homa, Niemann and Rahm had all previously finished 11th or better (Merrick’s was at the 2008 U.S. Open) down the coast in San Diego. 2015’s shock winner James Hahn doesn’t share that distinction, but he had finished 3rd on the Poa Annua greens at Pebble Beach in his rookie season of 2013. Steve Stricker, who won here in 2010, has no Torrey Pines form of note, however he’d finished 2nd at Riviera 12 months earlier showing he could handle the Kikuyu.

So I’m looking for upwardly mobile ball-strikers this week who have a penchant for playing positively at Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach or naturally here at Riviera. A high ball flight, to hold fast greens, the ability to grind when scoring is tough, plus the ability to move the ball confidently both ways are also key attributes for me this week.

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