By Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby is the final of four stops on the Gulfstream Park road to Kentucky Derby 2024, and 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points are available to the top five eligible finishers.
Recent winners of the Florida Derby who went on to victory in the Kentucky Derby include Monarchos in 2001, Barbaro in 2006, Big Brown in 2008, followed in 2013 by Orb and most recently with Nyquist and Always Dreaming in 2016 and 2017.
Here is the analysis for the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby with the official track morning line odds. It is scheduled as the finale on a 14-race card with post time set for 6:42 p.m. EDT.
1. Frankie’s Empire, 12-1. Classic Empire – Michael Yates / Miguel Vasquez – 8: 4-0-2 – $225,700. Frankie’s Empire had three wins as a 2-year-old and was winless in three starts in stakes races. This year he had a trainer change to Michael Yates, won the seven-furlong Swale and moved to the Kentucky Derby trail to finish third in the Fountain of Youth (G2). Frankie’s Empire earned 15 Derby points, but he is not Triple Crown nominated. Toss.
2. Hades, 7-2. Awesome Slew – Joe Orseno / Paco Lopez – 3: 3-0-0 – $225,000. Hades has three wins from three starts. The Florida-bred made all three starts at Gulfstream Park, beginning with a $50,000 optional-claiming maiden race in December. At the end of that month, he won a restricted allowance for state-breds by eight lengths while racing on the lead. Hades then moved to the Derby trail with another front-end score in the Holy Bull (G3) to earn 10 Derby points. Unbeaten record.
3. Bail Us Out, 15-1. Lookin At Looky – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 2: 1-0-0 – $45,000. Bail Us Out was a $700,000 2-year-old purchase who got a maiden victory in his second start, which happened on the Gulfstream tapeta track as a heavy favorite. Todd Pletcher is the winningest Florida Derby trainer, with seven dating from 2007 with Scat Daddy to Forte last year. Toss.
4. Grand Mo the First, 15-1. Uncle Mo – Victor Barboza Jr. / Emisael Jaramillo – 5: 2-0-3 – $121,650. Grand Mo the First ran well on all three racing surfaces. He won his first two races on the Gulfstream Tapeta and then shipped to California to finish third in the Zuma Beach (G3) on the turf behind the recent Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Endlessly. The son of Uncle Mo ran on the dirt for the first time and was third in the Swale and the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), just a neck behind the winner. In that March race he picked up 15 Derby qualifying points. Use underneath.
5. Real Macho, 20-1. Mucho Macho Man – Rohan Crichton / Javier Castellano – 5: 2-0-0 – $88,320. Real Macho made all five of his starts at Gulfstream and won two in his second try in a maiden race and then in a February allowance going a mile. Real Macho earned four Derby points when he ran fourth in the Fountain of Youth. Toss.
6. Le Dom Bro, 15-1. Mucho Macho Man – Eniel Cordero / Edwin Gonzalez – 6: 1-4-0 – $168,450. Le Dom Bro got his first victory in a restricted maiden race at Saratoga in August. He had a change of trainer and was off for four months. Le Dom Bro did very little running in the Remsen (G2), but in Florida he had a positive change in form and ran second in the Swale and the Fountain of Youth to earn 25 Derby points. Use underneath.
7. Catalytic, 20-1. Catalina Cruiser – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Julien Leparoux – 2: 1-1-0 – $30,825. Catalytic was a debut winner in October by more than five lengths at Gulfstream against a field of 10. He made his first start of this year three weeks ago in an allowance at Tampa Bay Downs going six furlongs and finished a close second. Trainer Saffie Joseph won the Florida Derby in 2022 with White Abarrio. Toss.
8. Seminole Chief, 30-1. Gervin – Jack Sisterson / Joel Rosario – 5: 3-0-0 – $254,435. Seminole Chief won his first race at Finger Lakes in September by eight lengths. The Florida-bred then went to Gulfstream to run in a pair of Florida Stallion Stakes winning around two turns. He tried the Derby trail in the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct and was eased. Back at Gulfstream, Seminole Chief was a front-end winner of an allowance. Toss.
9. Conquest Warrior, 3-1. City of Light – Shug McGaughey / Jose Ortiz – 3: 2-0-1 – $96,000. Conquest Warrior was a $1 million yearling purchase who did not make his first start until December at Aqueduct and was third in what had to be described as a learning experience. He moved to Florida for the winter and won his next two races with a maiden going a mile and a nine-furlong allowance by five lengths in a field of six as the odds-on favorite. Trainer Shug McGaughey won the Florida Derby in 2013 with Orb. Top choice.
10. Fierceness, 8-5. City of Flight – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 4: 2-0-1 – $1,127,250. Champion Fierceness made his 2024 debut as the .20-1 favorite in the Holy Bull, where he had the lead early after a rough start but faded to third down the stretch. Can the son of City of Light get back to his best form, which produced the powerful victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and earned him most of his 36 Derby points? John Velazquez won the Florida Derby five times, more than any other jockey, and three of them were with Pletcher. Win contender.
11. Iris’s Dream, 30-1. Jess’s Dream – Cheryl Winebraugh / Jorge Ruiz – 3: 1-1-0 – $42,860. Iris’s Dream broke his maiden in his third try in a $50,000 optional-claiming maiden race by more than seven lengths while trying the turf for the first time. Toss.
Summary: Conquest Warrior, Fierceness and Hades are the top win contenders. Hades remained undefeated after he upset the champion Fierceness in his first start of the year in the Holy Bull. It is hard to know what to expect from those two as the distance and quality of competition increase in the Florida Derby.
In a sense, Conquest Warrior is the new face in the group as he makes his first appearance on the Derby trail and for that matter any stakes race. Well liked since he was purchased for $1 million as a yearling, Conquest Warrior showed his class and quality in his three starts going back to December. Conquest Warrior will be the top choice.
