Copa America 2024: United States vs. Uruguay Best Bets (7/1/24)

Copa America 2024: United States vs. Uruguay Best Bets (7/1/24)

The United States continue their 2024 Copa America campaign on Monday against Uruguay. Action kicks off at 9 p.m. ET on FOX.

The United States sits at No. 11 in the latest FIFA Men’s World Rankings. Uruguay is 14th.

Via the Copa America odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, which United States-Uruguay best bets should you target for Thursday’s match?

United States vs. Uruguay Betting Picks

Under 2.5 Goals (-146)

After losing to Panama last time out, the Americans have a lot of work to do if they are to advance to the quarterfinals. While the scenarios are complicated and the US doesn’t necessarily have to win to advance, the Americans will surely approach tonight’s match desperate to take all three points.

On the other hand, Uruguay has the top spot in the group locked up as long as it doesn’t lose to the US by four goals.

The level of motivation for each side — the Americans’ desperation as well as Uruguay’s lack of incentive to win — is surely playing into the betting markets. If everything was equal, Uruguay likely wouldn’t be +190 to win.

With Uruguay possibly more interested in making this a low-scoring game rather than pushing to win it, under 2.5 goals is pretty appealing — even at -146 odds.

Uruguay has looked as good as anyone so far this tourney, winning their two matches by a combined 8-1 score.

Not only have the results been stellar for Uruguay, but their expected goals (xG) data, per FBRef‘s xG model, has been excellent, too. Through two matches, they’ve amassed 4.4 xG while giving up only 0.6 xG.

The US’ xG numbers look really good, too, as they’ve created 3.6 xG and conceded only 0.9 xG — and that’s despite playing a man down for roughly 70 minutes versus Panama.

It’s those defensive numbers that interest me the most as both sides have been great at preventing chances.

Given that all Uruguay need to do today is to avoid a four-goal defeat, Uruguay would be thrilled with a low-scoring game, and they have the defense — led by Barcelona standout Ronald Araujo — to make that happen. And if the US get a 1-0 lead, the Americans will surely do everything in their power to make that advantage stand in their effort to try to get to the knockout round.

It’s unlikely we see an open game with a lot of chances.

United States vs. Uruguay Prop Bet

Giovanni Reyna to Have 1+ Shot on Target (-135)

As mentioned, the US likely need a win — although that’s not 100% the case — so they’ll probably be the team showing attacking intent tonight. And if the Americans are down in the second half, we could see a late-game scenario where they are pushing forward with numbers and throwing everything at it to get a goal.

Reyna is one of the team’s main attacking threats, and he should be even more involved than usual with the Americans pushing for a win. He played 65 minutes and fired one shot in the opening group match against Bolivia and then played just 45 minutes versus Panama before coming off as the U.S. made some tactical changes that were likely related to playing a man down.

Reyna typically spends a lot of time in dangerous areas, and Uruguay — given their situation heading into this game — may be content to let the US have the ball and take shots from outside the box, which is where Reyna operates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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